Want that Beta invite? Consider the odds
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These days, game information, advertisements and hype are pushed upon the public well in advance of the release. One of the biggest aspects now of the "MMORPG preseason" is the Beta play. There is almost a bravado as to how early you can get yourself into beta. Statements like "I've been playing this game since Beta 0.001 alpha ...so I know more than you" are quite common on the forums. Funny part is, less than half the people who are granted beta access, truly have any desire to test the game. For many, the definition of beta test is "I am going to play this game for free, if I like it...it passes the test". Still getting into Beta for games like Darkfall and even Stargate and Star Wars: The Old Republic are some of the hottest commodities in MMORPGs.

I thought I would have some fun with numbers. Lets consider recent releases like Warhammer Online where there were >750,000 beta apps, or Age of Conan where over 300,000 applied for. Darkfall Online (Release date set for Feb 25) is rumored to have about 250,000 applications already.

Now, this does not represent the reality of beta invites because there are thousands of players who will receive a beta application ....However, If we assume that everyone who applied for beta has an equal chance and there is only one beta slot left available ...then there is approximately a 1 in 250,000 chance of you getting into Darkfall Online. So, think of that in the context of other occurrences that happen in real life.

I put a few in yellow that I really enjoyed...


What are some other odds to consider
Odds of bowling a 300 game: 11,500 to 1
Odds of getting a hole in one: 5,000 to 1
Odds of Winning an Olympic medal: 662,000 to 1
Odds of winning an Academy Award: 11,500 to 1
Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1
Odds of injury from shaving: 6,585 to 1
Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 4,464 to 1
Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 3,623 to 1
Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1
Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 685,000 to 1
Odds of being killed sometime in the next year in any sort of transportation accident: 77 to 1
Odds of being killed in any sort of non-transportation accident: 69 to 1
Chance of dying from any kind of injury during the next year: 1 in 1,820
Chance of dying from an assault: 1 in 16,421
Chance of dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666
Chance of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065
Chance of dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524
Chance of dying in an explosion: 1 in 107,787
Odds of being struck by lightning: 576,000 to 1
Odds of being murdered: 18,000 to 1
Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1
Odds of dating a millionaire: 215 to 1
Odds of writing a New York Times best seller: 220 to 1
Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 7,000 to 1
Odds of getting hemorrhoids: 25 to 1
Odds of being audited by the IRS: 175 to 1
Odds of having your identity stolen: 200 to 1
Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 563 to 1
Odds of becoming a pro athlete: 22,000 to 1
Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Roadshow: 60,000 to 1
Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 649,740 to 1 .
Chance that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,000
Chance of dying in such a collision: 1 in 20,000
Chance of dying from exposure to forces of nature (heat, cold, lightning, earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107
Chance of dying in an airplane accident: 1 in 354,319
Chance of dying from choking on food: 1 in 370,035
Chance of dying in a terrorist attack while visiting a foreign country: 1 in 650,000
Chance of dying from being bitten by a dog: 1 in 700,000

Just having some fun. Dont take this too seriously. Enjoy
Source: http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm

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The HopelessThe Hopeful
Vortan
I don't want to know what my chances of dying are. The other stats were cool though.		 Xray00
These odds are why I was very happy when I won a slot into the beta at Origins last year. Now I just need that invite :)
Weezel
Yeah, I'm going to stop checking my email for beta invites, because soon I'll need to spend that time watching the news to make sure I don't miss out when they announce my name to the world and give me an Olympic medal.		 Satarious
Wow! I didn't realize I won the lottery getting into WAR beta. And I never win anything... ;)
Zeetchmen
I can die 5 times over in an explosion before I get into beta.		 Rowhin
I guess I'm one of the lucky few then :D
Zaol
I'm sure that had I gotten the invite, I'd have been so happy, I'd have run outside to shout for joy... and then being statistically lucky would turn on me and I'd get that lightning bolt right in the face.		 Aqe
If there is 60000 beta slots in the end you have 10% chance to get in. 10 to 1.
Not even close to the other stuff listed here.
Drukstylz
I didn't apply for the Beta because I was busy tending to my "Age of Conan Shrine". 		Winner.
You are wrong on the beta invite, considering atleast 60k people will be invited, and probably already 20k has been invited of those those already listed, the percentage to get in is alot higher. Not 1 person of 500 thousand will get in.
Dan
I like open betas!		 H@x
I have been in many betas meaning apparently I should be dead many many times over.j
Fluffier
But i still check my emailz several times a day.
Beta is pretty fun, sorry bout you guys that didn't get in. :(
Kittens
Better live life to the fullest each day because ur chance of drowning in a bathtub are 685,000 to 1...
I dont know if I got lucky, but I got in.
Anonymous
Odds of dying: 1 on 1.

This article throws numbers around to impress people, with no idea what they actually mean. Winning an Olympic medal is not a random event. Seeing as I don't play in the Olympics, or even practice any sort of physical sport, I kind of think those odds will have to be slightly adjusted for me. The same goes for dating a supermodel. Except adjusted the other way. Because I rock.

Then there's the fact you don't say how often those odds apply. Do I have a 0.000224 chance of getting injured from using a chainsaw somewhere in my life? Ever year? Every time I use a chainsaw? Do I have a 0.000056 chance of dying due to murder when I go? Or just every year? Every day? Do people have a 0.000011 chance of being in a relationship with a supermodel at any one time, or at some point in their lives? Maybe somehow once a year? And again, none of these figures apply to any one person.

Finally, there's the problem other people have pointed out: you talk about putting things in perspective, but then you compare all these figures to the odds of getting in if a single slot is available, which is obviously not the way things actually go.

I suggest you and other "mathematically challenged" people leave odds alone and stick to measuring rainforests in football fields.
ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm chance of getting into beta will also need the number of slot they will have.. every slot taken is 1 less from the over all group of applicants
YOUR NUMBERS SIR.. ARE WRONG!
I agree with much of this article ...there is no hope!
My experiences in Beta invites have been different in this way